Application of Proxy Models for Estimation of Cumulative Recovery Volume from a Heavy Oil Reservoir

DOI: 10.14800/IOGR.1284

Abstract

Steam flooding as a popular method for heavy oil recovery is associated with high cost and uncertainty issues. These issues are usually analysed through various simulations and experimentations which are usually time consuming and computationally expensive. Hence, in this study a response surface model as proxy model was developed to estimate the cumulative recovery volume (CRV) from a heterogeneous reservoir undergoing a steam flooding process. A five inverted spot steam flooding pattern for the heavy oil reservoir was developed, followed by a Box-Behnken experimental design considering steam and reservoir parameters, was used for data generation. Hence, with steam injection rates, steam temperature, steam quality, bottomhole flowing pressures of the producer wells as the input parameters, a reduced quadratic response surface model was developed to predict the CRV. With the developed model as the objective function, the maximization of the CRV was achieved while determining the optimal values for the parameters used. The study proved successful as the adjusted and predicted R² values were recorded as 97.59% and 95.85% respectively. Also, up to 19% increase in CRV was achieved after the optimization process. This research therefore, demonstrates the feasibility of using proxy models to analyse and estimate CRV of a steam flooding reservoir while benefiting from the computational advantages they provide. As such, this approach has potential applications in the oil and gas industry, as it can help reduce uncertainty and the associated high costs of heavy oil recovery.